2026 NHL Draft Questions: Who could be a surprise steal?

NHL Draft week is always a time of change. That could come by way of trades — and we've seen a few of those already between Brady Tkachuk and Simon Nemec — or at the draft itself, where the next generation of players will be welcomed to the league.

This year's draft rankings has been fascinating to see evolve through the year. Keaton Verhoeff had a strong case for No. 1 overall in October, and Gavin McKenna was right there with him. But by the time the world juniors had completed, Sweden's Ivar Stenberg had jumped into the mix.

Verhoeff is no longer even the clear top defenceman in this class, though he remains one of the top choices. As the year has progressed, others such as Chase Reid, Carson Carels, Alberts Smits and Daxon Rudolph have shot up draft boards and are intriguing players to watch.

As the week unfolds, the draft order could very well change some more. But the players available remain the same. So, we turn to our two draft gurus at Sportsnet, Sam Cosentino and Jason Bukala, and ask them questions about this draft class and any surprises they think might happen on Friday night.

Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Chase Reid, Caleb Malhotra, Keaton Verhoeff and Carson Carels are often considered the top six players in this draft. Is there a player who might disrupt that order, and if so, who could jump into the top six?

Sam Cosentino: Viggo Bjorck is that player for me. Seeing him play at the men's worlds on the top line, on PP1, and in all important situations, I had to be reminded it wasn't a replay of the world juniors I was watching. He definitely left a lasting impression on teams. For me, seeing him in-person helped me to realize that Bjorck's a bit bigger and a bit more sturdy than what he is listed at (five-foot-nine, 180 pounds).

The other element to this conversation is the lack of high-end centres in this draft class. I believe there are two in the top 10 between him and Malhotra, and that adds to Bjorck's value. In fact, there's a Canadian team picking sixth (Calgary) that could use a centre with his talents.  

Jason Bukala: I'm interested to see if Prince Albert Raiders defenceman Daxon Rudolph is coveted by a team in the top six. Most defencemen ahead of Rudolph have garnered significant attention, but could Rudolph end up being the Moritz Seider of this draft class? When the Detroit Red Wings selected Seider sixth overall in 2019 some people were surprised, but it certainly turned out to be a wise decision. Rudolph is listed at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, and his numbers are terrific, with 37G-68A, 100 penalty minutes and a plus-41 rating in the regular season and playoffs combined.

Do you think we could see more trades involving 2026 first-round picks this week?

SC: I always hope and predict this will happen. With eight teams currently having multiple first round picks and many of those teams picking early and late, I do believe we will see some movement.  

San Jose and Chicago are two targets for me. Both of those teams have had an abundance of first round riches in recent drafts, and both clubs are due for a major push forward to the playoffs. Moving picks for live bodies should be in consideration for both clubs. I think the phone rings off the hook for Sharks GM Mike Grier once the Maple Leafs select Gavin McKenna. I also think Chicago could add some veteran experience from a team outside the first round wanting to get in...think Boston, maybe Detroit (as part of a Dylan Larkin deal).  

St. Louis could also make a move forward with two of their three first-round picks and make a splash under first-year GM Alex Steen. I could see Calgary making a push forward as well.

JB: I feel like more first-round picks could be moved before Friday or at the draft itself. We have already seen some movement and with the Ottawa Senators now owning three first-round picks following the Brady Tkachuk trade with the Florida Panthers, I'm keeping a close eye on the Sens. The extra draft capital and cap space provides Ottawa with plenty of flexibility to target and perhaps overpay for a replacement for Tkachuk.

What was the biggest challenge you had in ranking this year’s class?

SC: There were two key challenges. The biggest was trying to make apples to apples comparisons on players. This is why there's such intense focus on the Hlinka-Gretzky, the world juniors and the U18 worlds. The top players typically play in all of these events. Of course, the late birthday players aren't included in the U18 events, but they usually are primetime players at the world juniors. Those events are spread out perfectly through the year to allow scouts to see players versus their peer group and also allow you to see growth from the start of the season to the end. In the regular season, it's so hard to compare player A to player B when they are in different leagues, different levels and different countries. The more robust video platforms that are in place can help for sure, but nothing can replace live viewings. 

The other challenge about this year's draft class is pitting talent versus positional priority. The talent at the high-end of this draft class is very closely grouped. This means that teams can more readily intersect positional need and best player available. Moreover, it's rare that the top two projected players are wingers. It's also rare to have just two or three centres in the top 10-11 projected players. Another rarity is having three elite right-shot defencemen so early in the class.  

Teams will have to weigh the talent of the wingers versus the centres versus the defencemen. It's hard to do in a year where so many of the talents are so tightly packed.  

JB: The biggest challenge was envisioning what this draft class would look like if all players competed against each other at the same levels. For instance, the top of this class includes prospects who competed at the NCAA, European Pro and Major Junior levels.

Another challenge involved the players' ages. Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, for example, are late 2007-born prospects who played in the NCAA (McKenna) and SHL (Stenberg), while Keaton Verhoeff competed at the NCAA level as a 17-year-old born in June 2008. What would Verhoeff's offensive numbers look like if he had remained in the WHL with the Victoria Royals instead of challenging himself at the NCAA level? He produced 6G-14A at North Dakota in his freshman season after contributing 21G-24A the year previously in Victoria. There's lots to unpack and project with this group. 

Does this draft class remind you of any other before it?

SC: After Steven Stamkos was taken by Tampa with the first pick in 2008, four defencemen were taken right after: Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo and Luke Schenn. Three other defencemen were in the top 15, with Tyler Myers at 11 to Buffalo, Colten Teubert at 12 to Los Angeles and Erik Karlsson at 15 to Ottawa. I would say that this year we will get a run of five defencemen in the first nine picks and two others by pick 16.  

JB: The very top of this class reminds me of the 2013 draft. That year Nathan MacKinnon went first overall to the Colorado Avalanche and Aleksander Barkov was selected by the Florida Panthers second. I was a member of the Panthers scouting staff at the time and I recall we felt comfortable drafting either one of the top prospects. There wasn't a wrong answer at the top of the class in our estimation, despite the fact MacKinnon and Barkov had different approaches to their game.

It feels the same this year with McKenna projecting to be the more dynamic, quick-strike, offensive threat compared to Stenberg, who also projects as a top-line forward but one who dissects the game differently than McKenna.

Where do you think the first “positional run” will happen, and how might that impact what happens after?

SC: I would say we will get a run of at least four defencemen in the next five picks after third overall.

JB: I mostly agree with Sam. I feel there will be a run of defencemen between picks four and nine.  

If you had to pick one player who you don't have ranked inside the top 10 that you think has the potential to overshoot projection and be looked back on as a steal, who is it and why?

SC: Wyatt Cullen, whom I currently have ranked 12th, is a guy I could see sneaking just inside the top 10. I think his NHL bloodlines will play, and I believe his growth without losing speed or skill is super impressive. He is one of the more dynamic players this draft class has to offer. 

JB: There's something about the way Nikita Klepov impacts the game offensively that makes me feel like he could end up being a steal. He produced a ton of offence in Saginaw (37G-60A) and was deployed in a variety of roles. I envision Klepov primarily being someone used at even strength and on the power play as his primary role. The way he sees the ice, distributes and shoots the puck, cannot be taught. In time his skating will hopefully reach another level, providing him more space to make even more plays.